Bitcoin bulls can't rely on ETF flows

Spot bitcoin ETFs, the source of demand many crypto bulls were counting on to keep powering prices higher into year-end, have faltered badly.

These U.S.-listed funds, seen as a proxy for institutional demand, registered a net outflow of $1.282 billion, the largest weekly outflow since the week of June 22–28, according to data source SoSoValue. Four of the five trading days were red, and the funds are now down $914 million on a year-to-date basis in terms of flows. They had turned positive for the year on Sept. 22 following over $6 billion in inflows since early August.

The renewed investor exodus comes amid jitters in AI and tech stocks on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq has notched a five-week losing streak. It also adds to doubts about the argument that bitcoin is digital gold and a safe haven, as well as the narrative popular among bulls that money would rotate into BTC once the AI trade fizzled out.

In the meantime, TradFi-linked instruments on crypto platforms are giving investors a way to express views and manage risk when traditional markets are closed. On Sunday evening EST, CNBC and other media outlets reported that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang admitted to an affair with a woman alleged to be a Chinese spy, and that the company’s board had opened an investigation.

The XStocks tokenized NVDA fell 4%, while NVDA-linked perpetual futures on Binance and Hyperliquid saw a similar drop. The moves lined up with the actual shares, which fell about 4% in premarket trading on Monday.

“This reaction powerfully showcases the maturing utility of crypto-native derivatives as a reliable engine for 24/7 price discovery and real-world asset trading outside standard Wall Street hours,” Tagus Capital said in an email.

Traders will be closely watching Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index. A softer-than-expected inflation print could pull bond yields lower, providing a tailwind for risk assets. But without renewed ETF inflows, a sustained rally may remain difficult to achieve – as recent price action has shown.

“The US 10Y eased to 4.85%. Bunds and Gilts also rallied modestly. Lower yields are supportive at the margin, but not enough to offset persistent ETF outflows and fresh positive leverage,” analysts at Marex said. Stay alert!

What’s trending

• SpaceX proposes a $24 billion Texas supercomputer worth 17 times its bitcoin pile (CoinDesk): The company is planning a $24 billion project at Starbase, a Texas city in Cameron County built around SpaceX’s main rocket factory and launch site. The project would include a natural gas power plant and a data center that the City Notice calls a “super-compute facility.”
• Nvidia shares slide as it probes alleged Chinese spy scandal (FT): Jensen Huang has admitted having an affair two days after the FT reported his alleged romantic relationship with a woman the US intelligence community believes was working as a spy for China.⁠
• Trump says strikes unlikely as Rubio slams Iran’s demands (Bloomberg): US President Donald Trump struck a more conciliatory tone about Iran over the weekend, saying it’s “highly unlikely” he will order extensive strikes on the Islamic Republic.
• China extends U.S. trade truce by two months (Reuters): The trade truce was due to expire on Tuesday, with Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump expected to meet, for the third time so far this year, at the APEC leaders’ summit in China next week.

Today’s signal

Spot bitcoin ETFs. (CoinDesk, SoSoValue)

The chart shows weekly inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs alongside year-to-date flows.

Investors yanked over $1 billion from these funds last week, pushing the YTD tally into the red. That’s a marked slowdown from over $20 billion in net inflows in each of the preceding two years.