Bitcoin weakness erases September's bullish signal

Bitcoin dropped below a key level, reversing a September signal that had convinced analysts a new bull run had begun.

Specifically, the price of the largest cryptocurrency fell below its 50-week simple moving average. BTC recently changed hands below $73,400, trading at a discount to its 50-week SMA of $75,153.

This marks a failed breakout, a pattern technical analysts often take to represent renewed seller dominance in the market.

In September, prices convincingly topped the 50-week average, prompting several analysts, including Galaxy Digital’s research head, Alex Thorn, to call it evidence of the start of the new bull run.

Thorn’s analysis showed that in four of the five previously completed bear markets, the first weekly close above the 50-week SMA led to bull runs. The lone exception was the 2021–22 cycle, in which two brief reclaims were followed by a deeper selloff.

For now, that bullish view stands invalidated, and it’s happening alongside large outflows from spot ETFs that recently highlighted weak institutional demand.

“We stay cautious while BTC sits under its 50-week average, with $68k the next level down and reclaiming $80k changing that view,” leading crypto market maker Wintermute said.

Elsewhere, the Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency’s value against major peers, briefly topped 103, the highest since March 2025. Sustained dollar strength makes bitcoin and the wider crypto market less attractive.

Some observers are still optimistic, saying the dollar’s rally may be ending, with markets seeing the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase pretty much baked in for December.

“We think much of that hawkishness is already reflected in prices, leaving the balance of risk tilted toward profit-taking on dollar longs. A narrowing of US yield differentials would take pressure off crypto and could help bring buyers back,” Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said in an email.

Kruger added that the Fed commentary and Friday’s U.S. producer price inflation report are the next tests for that view. In addition, the conflict with Iran remains a swing factor through the price of oil, where renewed supply pressure could keep inflation concerns elevated.

“If those catalysts give the dollar little reason to extend its gains, we see scope for Bitcoin to lead a recovery from here,” he noted.

Meanwhile, some observers are worried that MSCI’s exclusion of Strategy (MSTR) from its indexes could hamper the company’s ability to raise money for its bitcoin purchases. Still, much of the bad news may already be priced in, they added.

“The company still holds 850,364 BTC and reported no Bitcoin sales. The cleaner near term trade is therefore pressure on MSTR liquidity and relative value, not an automatic BTC disposal. Extrapolating index outflows directly into spot Bitcoin supply would be the wrong hedge,” analysts at Marex said in an email. Stay alert!

What’s trending

• Gemini sells UK and European operations to stablecoin payments firm KAST for under $10 million (CoinDesk): The crypto exchange sold its U.K. and European operations to stablecoin payments company KAST for less than $10 million.
• Polymarket trims workforce under investor pressure as Kalshi surges ahead (CoinDesk): Polymarket cut jobs and ended contractor agreements as it reshaped its business amid investor pressure and growing competition from rival Kalshi. The company said the changes involved “a lot of new hires, changes in personnel and letting some people go.”
• Nvidia stock falls 6% as investors await Jensen Huang’s fate(CNBC): Nvidia’s board is weighing CEO Jensen Huang’s future after reports he conducted two extramarital affairs. Several Wall Street analysts told CNBC that if Huang is removed as CEO, the stock could fall, given how critical he has been to Nvidia’s success.
• Russian diesel exports double after Trump lifts sanctions, but U.S. gets none (FT): President Donald Trump's decision to import Russian diesel helped Moscow double its exports of the fuel last month, but none of the shipments reached the U.S. because buyers are unwilling to accept the cargoes.

Today’s signal

BTC's weekly price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)

The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format since 2022. Overlaid on the chart is the 50-week simple moving average of the price.

Bitcoin is trading well below the average, marking a reversal of the bullish breakout noted in September.