Bitcoin barely flinches at hot CPI as ETF selling slows

Bitcoin took Tuesday’s U.S. hot inflation report and flush-out of leverage positions in its stride, falling less than 1% over the past 24 hours. The question now is whether that performance is a sign of resilience or just a pause in selling.

Consumer prices rose a greater-than-forecast 0.4% last month, prompting traders to price in a 90% chance of a quarter-point Fed interest-rate increase, according to CME FedWatch.

The largest cryptocurrency dropped to around $72,700 on Tuesday, and was recently trading around $74,700. Futures traders took the brunt as liquidations jumped 288% to $725 million, according to CoinGlass.

What has changed is the pace of ETF selling. While U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $95 million on Tuesday for a fourth straight day of net outflows, that’s down from $201 million on Monday, $412 million on Friday and $430 million on Thursday.

Stablecoins are tight too. According to CryptoQuant, the market capitalization of Tether’s USDT has dropped $6.6 billion over 60 days, the biggest 60-day contraction since its data began in 2022 and more than double the drop after the collapse of FTX four years ago.

“Stablecoin growth funded every rally this cycle,” CryptoQuant wrote on X. The Coinbase Premium, a gauge of U.S. demand, has been negative for 30 straight days.

That leaves bitcoin hovering around its 200-day moving average, near $73,200 by CryptoQuant’s calculation, which the firm says separates a shallow correction from a deeper one. It is also below the 365-day average of $76,400, which CryptoQuant says must be reclaimed to restore a bullish structure.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, a gauge of cycle strength, has dropped to 20 from 90 on Oct. 13. That is the same reading that hit in April 2025, just before the market bottomed, though the firm warns the same signals can also be how a deeper correction starts.

Stocks, in contrast, are bouncing, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.7% after CoreWeave’s earnings beat.

Options traders are buying protection from declines, though not frantically. Eight of the 10 most active bitcoin contracts on Deribit expiring through Nov. 27 are puts at strikes of $69,000 to $74,000, yet implied volatility is only around 36% to 38%.

Analysts at BRN said on that Tuesday bitcoin needs “real buying, not a lucky break.” Stay alert!

What’s trending

• Kraken's xStocks adds 200 UK and EU shares as its assets top $1.1 billion (CoinDesk): Kraken parent Payward added more than 200 tokenized U.K. and European stocks to its xStocks platform, including all 40 companies in Germany’s DAX index.
• Anthropic sets IPO price range of $70 to $78, looks to start trading Nov. 19, sources say (CNBC): Anthropic said it will offer 825 million shares in its forthcoming IPO at a price range of $70-$78.
• U.S. Treasury futures fall as markets see more Fed hikes (Bloomberg): Derivatives trading suggests a retreat in U.S. Treasuries is set to continue as faster-than-expected inflation data cemented the prospects for more aggressive interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. bond market is closed today.
• U.S. Treasury chief Bessent moved to military base after Iranian threats, sources say(Reuters): Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was moved from his home in Washington, DC, to an undisclosed U.S. military ⁠base following “Iranian threats” to his life.

Today’s signal

(TradingView)

The chart plots zcash (ZEC) weekly candles alongside its relative strength index (RSI) in the lower panel.

The coin has rolled over on the weekly chart since the bearish RSI divergence called the top near $1,720. It’s down 19% this week to near $980.

There is still a fair bit of air to the 0.618 Fibonnaci level/50-week exponential moving average confluence (~$680–700) as the real support test, but it’s worth noting that RSI is cooling toward the midline and getting closer to a reset.