Bitcoin breaks with stocks, declines as ETF outflows mount, MARA reduces holdings

Bitcoin has recently been closely tracking U.S. stocks. On Monday, however, that stopped.

Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures have moved in tandem for weeks, falling together on Oct. 30 and during last week’s AI-led selloff. But yesterday, when the the S&P 500 index posted its best day since April 8 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.7%, bitcoin stayed put. The largest cryptocurrency is down 1.4% since midnight UTC and little changed over the past 24 hours.

The flows offer a clue as to why, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs losing another $201 million on Monday, according to Farside Investors, taking outflows since Nov. 2 to around $1.5 billion. The funds are now down roughly $1.1 billion on a year-to-date basis, compared with more than $20 billion of net inflows in each of the past two years.

BlackRock’s IBIT has now posted seven straight sessions of redemptions. Supply is also growing, with bitcoin miner MARA Holdings (MARA) disclosing it sold 13,597 BTC for around $1.1 billion in the past six weeks and saying it plans to sell more. Retail interest looks thin too, with Santiment data showing bitcoin has lost around 108,700 non-empty wallets since Oct. 16.

In the meantime, Wall Street keeps building on crypto rails. The New York Stock Exchange picked Avalanche to settle trades on a planned 24/7 tokenized securities platform, sending the AVAX token up around 5% over the past 24 hours.

U.S. inflation data due at 8:30 a.m. ET is the next test. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast headline CPI rose 0.3% in October and core CPI 0.2%, slower than September’s 0.6% and 0.3%.

The data could help underpin the largest cryptocurrency, but analysts at BRN saybitcoin needs “real buying, not a lucky break.” Stay alert!

What’s trending

• Bitcoin faces U.S. CPI test as analysts warn inflation relief may not be enough (CoinDesk): Bitcoin fell early Tuesday as analysts braced for October inflation data that could determine whether risk assets get a year-end tailwind or face another wave of selling.
• Brent crude falls below $90 for first time since August on Iran war de-escalation hopes (CNBC): Recovering regional oil flows and reports that Iran may soften its position on the Strait of Hormuz have eased concerns about supply shortages.
• Top UK regulator says banks are trimming AI risk as alarm grows (Bloomberg): U.K. banks have begun trimming exposure to artificial intelligence as alarm mounts about a brutal correction in the sector, according to the Bank of England's top supervisor.
• Microsoft presses Trump to scuttle expected ban on Chinese data center technology (Reuters): Microsoft has been pressing the Trump administration to halt plans to bar Chinese imports of a key component used in AI ‌data centers.

Today’s signal

(TradingView)

The macro structure of Hyperliquid’s HYPE token has held as the price tests core trendline support ($72–$74) with a weekly relative strength index (RSI) of 52, fairly in the middle of the range. Trading below the 50-day exponential moving average keeps the short-term bias flat-to-down.

Near-term upside depends on market liquidity and whether the debut of Elysium, a general-purpose layer-2 network for the Hyperliquid ecosystem, attracts sticky total value locked (TVL) rather than a sell-the-news fade.