Bitget UEX Daily | Bitcoin drops below $77,000; chip rebound lifts Nasdaq; AMD guidance highlights AI demand

I. Hot News Highlights

US Economy | Job openings remain at 7.5 million, employment and services data follow tonight

In September, US JOLTS job openings were approximately 7.5 million, hires about 5.4 million, and total separations about 5.3 million, showing little change from the previous month. The data does not yet show an abrupt contraction in labor demand, with voluntary quits increasing.

This combination is insufficient on its own to confirm weakening employment or fading inflationary pressures. Tonight’s ADP jobs report and ISM Services report will provide additional context, focusing on whether hiring, service sector prices, and orders are moving in tandem, and how Treasury yields respond.

Global Energy |Crude Oil Settlement Pulls Back, Asian Session Rebounds

On November 3, the January 2027 Brent contract settled at $103.60/barrel, while the December WTI contract settled at $96.09/barrel. By Beijing Time early this morning, both had rebounded to $104.38 and $96.67, respectively.

The market continues to weigh diplomatic progress against supply risks. The price pullback helps ease pressure on transport and manufacturing costs, but before supply expectations stabilize, a single-day decline is insufficient to confirm sustained cooling of energy inflation.

Market Regulation | US Individual Stock Perpetual Futures Gain Compliant Trading Pathway

On November 3, the CFTC announced that individual stock perpetual futures can be traded for the first time on designated contract markets that meet specific criteria and complete relevant SEC registrations. This development pertains to regulated trading venues and corresponding product conditions.

From a market structure perspective, traditional securities and perpetual derivatives are further integrated. Subsequent observations should focus on live instruments, trading depth, margin requirements, and funding rate arrangements. Regulatory progress itself does not equate to realized incremental trading volume.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

Crude oil opened above the previous day's settlement, with the supply risk premium retaining resilience. Precious metals next require closer attention to the interplay between the US dollar and Treasury yields: if economic data supports rates staying high, the carrying cost pressure on gold persists; if growth and employment slow in tandem, safe-haven demand becomes more likely to provide sustained support.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC/USDT trading at 76,844.00, down 0.45% over 24 hours; ETH/USDT trading at 2,261.19, up 0.03% over 24 hours. The total crypto market cap stands at approximately $2.61 trillion, down 2.36% over 24 hours. The independent update time for total market cap is 09:01 Beijing Time.

BTC Liquidation Zones: Major potential liquidation zones above and below today have not yet been verified in real-time, so specific price levels and distances are temporarily omitted.

ETH Liquidation Zones: Major potential liquidation zones above and below today similarly lack verifiable real-time data, making it premature to determine which side is closer. The shared data gap for both assets does not support carrying over yesterday’s liquidation zones or inferring directional bias from them.

BTC Institutional Cost: According to Strategy's latest disclosure on November 2, the average cost basis for its total holdings is $75,451, with 849,327 BTC held; the current price is approximately 1.74% above this cost, indicating referenced unrealized gains. Glassnode's estimated overall cost basis for US spot BTC ETFs, published on October 28, stands at approximately $81,500; the current price is about 5.81% below this reference, indicating referenced unrealized losses. This estimate retains its original publication date and is not today's real-time cost.

Market Snapshot in One Sentence: BTC remains between Strategy’s overall cost basis and the ETF cost estimate, while ETH has remained roughly flat over the past 24 hours. Initially, monitor whether BTC can reclaim $77,000 and assess shifts in risk appetite alongside tonight’s macro data. Conclusions on short squeezes or long liquidations are withheld pending missing liquidation heatmaps.

Major US Equity Indices Performance

The three major indices showed divergent performance, with tech stocks driving rebounds in the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed lower. The rally primarily reflects recovery in growth stocks, and it is premature to conclude that broad market risks have fully dissipated based solely on index gains.

Tech Magnificent Seven Performance

Five of the Magnificent Seven rose while two fell, with Microsoft leading the advance and Apple and Tesla pulling back. Recoveries occurred simultaneously across chip, cloud, and platform stocks, but consumer hardware and automotive names lagged. Earnings delivery and cost control remain key factors differentiating individual stocks.

Sector Volatility Watch

Semiconductors & AI Infrastructure: NVIDIA rose 2.29%, Micron gained 2.58%, and AMD climbed 3.65%. AMD’s after-hours earnings provided further evidence of data center demand, but these regular-session gains occurred prior to the report release; subsequent trading reactions require separate monitoring.

Crypto-Related Equities: Coinbase rose 5.53%, Strategy increased 3.72%, and Robinhood advanced 2.19%. While related equities recovered concurrently, BTC remains below $77,000. Observation is needed to see whether equity rebounds can corroborate improving spot crypto demand.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key US Stocks

AMD | Data Center Revenue Nearly Doubles, Q4 Growth Guidance Accelerates

Event Overview: AMD reported Q3 revenue of $13.377 billion, up 45% year-over-year, after market close on November 3; data center revenue reached approximately $8.5 billion, a 97% YoY increase. Q4 revenue guidance median is approximately $17 billion, +/- 3%. Regular session close was $483.90, up 3.65%.

Market Interpretation: Strong data center growth reinforces the logic of AI demand materialization, but Q4 non-GAAP gross margin guidance of approximately 55% trails Q3’s 56%, indicating that revenue expansion does not automatically translate to proportional margin improvement.

Investment Takeaway: Closely monitor volume ramp-up for Helios and Venice, product mix, and delivery schedules to assess whether growth can convert into sustained profitability.

Super Micro Computer SMCI | Sales Surge, Gross Margin & Cash Flow Require Scrutiny

Event Overview: The company disclosed FY2027 Q1 sales of $19.9 billion after market close on November 3, up from $11.1 billion in the prior quarter; gross margin came in at 12.7%, down from 17.5%, with operating cash flow net outflow of $434 million. Regular session close was $31.39, up 3.12%.

Market Interpretation: While revenue scale expanded significantly, the sequential gross margin decline and negative operating cash flow indicate that order fulfillment and cash collection must be evaluated separately.

Investment Takeaway: Next quarter sales guidance stands at $19.5B–$21.5B. Continued monitoring of gross margins, working capital utilization, and cash collection is required to validate growth quality.

Shopify SHOP | Revenue Up 32%, Stock Still Dips Sharply

Event Overview: Shopify reported Q3 revenue of $3.742 billion on November 3, up 32% year-over-year; free cash flow was $816 million, with a free cash flow margin of 22%. The stock closed at $142.57, down 8.74%.

Market Interpretation: Growth coexists with cash generation capability, but the stock reaction illustrates that operational data and market pricing do not always move in lockstep. Lacking a unified consensus forecast framework, the downside should not be simply attributed to "missed earnings."

Investment Takeaway: Q4 revenue is expected to grow slightly over 30% YoY, with gross profit projected to rise in the upper twenties percent range. Focus on holiday season sales, payment business mix, and expense management.

IV. Market & Project Updates

Canton Coin Receives Case-Specific Regulatory Response. On November 3, the SEC Division of Corporation Finance treated Canton Coin as a digital commodity under the relevant interpretive framework, citing applicant representations, and indicated no recommendation for enforcement action regarding specific automated minting arrangements. This response is fact-specific, represents only the division’s enforcement stance, and does not constitute a universal legal conclusion for all trading arrangements.

tZERO Signs Merger & Listing Agreement. On November 2, the company announced a definitive business combination agreement with FG Imperii, valuing tZERO at a pre-money equity valuation of $350 million, including milestone consideration of up to $25 million. The transaction is expected to close in early 2027, contingent on shareholder, regulatory, and other closing conditions, and cannot be considered already listed or funded.

Circle Faces Earnings Test Today. The company has announced it will release Q3 results on November 4 and host a video earnings call at 21:00 Beijing Time. Markets will focus on USDC circulation size, reserve yields and distribution costs, and the contribution of its payments business to revenue structure. As of this report’s publication, unissued quarterly figures cannot be cited.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Key Event Outlook: Tonight’s employment and services data will jointly influence rate expectations. If service sector demand and prices remain robust, growth stock recoveries may face yield headwinds; if employment and orders cool synchronously, further differentiation is needed between benefits from rate cuts and earnings pressure. Election vote counting lacks a unified result timeline, and congressional control remains unconfirmed as of this report’s release.

Institutional View: In a November 3 market commentary, Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management, interpreted the day’s performance as a rotation of capital from relatively defensive names like Apple toward chip stocks. While this view helps explain the day’s divergence, sustainability requires validation through earnings reports and subsequent price action.

This article is for market information exchange purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.