U.S. CPI rose stronger than expected 0.4% in October; core rate rose 0.3%

Inflation dipped a bit in October after September’s high reading, but remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, setting up the economy for another rate hike at the central bank’s final meeting of the year next month.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, down from 0.6% in September and worse than forecasts for 0.3%.

The core CPI rate — which excludes food and energy costs — rose 0.3% versus 0.3% in September and forecasts for 0.2%.

The year-over-year CPI rate wasn’t released by the BLS as there was no October 2025 report due to the then-ongoing government shutdown.

Interest rates were up sizably ahead of this morning’s print after Fed Governor Chris Waller overnight suggested the central bank should hike next month even if the CPI report was soft, and further opined that the Fed might consider a 50-basis-point rate move if CPI came in strong.